Sunday Rundown

The Big Story: With a commitment from Ben Nelson (D) Nebraska, Senate Democrats appear to have the sixty votes they need to override a Republican filibuster and pass their version of the Healthcare Bill.

Why you should care:
Obama will spend the remainder of his political capital on this bill. At his direction, his party will pass an incredibly unpopular (the RCP average is 38% favor, 52% oppose), remarkably large (fundamentally restructuing more than 17% of our nation's economy) bill on a straight party line vote. In doing so, he will condemn several Senators already facing tough reelection battles. Chris Dodd (D-CT), a 25+ year Senate alumnus, is down 13 points to his republican challenger. Arlen Specter (D-PA)is in a dead-heat with challenger Pat Toomey. Joe Biden's former seat is up for grabs - his son trailing in three of the latest four polls. Obama's seat is in trouble too - if Roland Burris (D-IL) wins the primary he will almost certainly lose the general. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), a late hold-out in going along with the Healthcare Bill, will lose her seat by casting her vote in favor of this piece of legislation. Right now there are four republicans running against each other in a primary election to see who will face her in the general - according to Rasmussen, she trails every single one of them. In short, passing this bill is political suicide for the Democrats.

This is of no consolation to those of us who oppose this bill, after all, we're convinced that this thing will bankrupt the country while dismantling the world's greatest healthcare system. What's worse, while the actual healthcare "reform" outlined in the bill won't happen for another four years, the taxes will take effect immediately and will be remarkably difficult to roll back once they have been put in place.

But what of the man himself? Obama's approval rating is hovering at an average of 48% - that tells us nothing (Reagan's approval rating after his first year was 49%). What is very telling are Obama's disappoval numbers. It's not a fair comparison to stack Obama against W at the same time in his presidency, not four month's after 9/11 (82% approve, 12% disapprove). One year in Clinton was looking at 54% approve, 38% disapprove; George H.W., 78% approve, 10% disapprove; Reagan, 49% approve, 38% disapprove and Carter, 54% approve, 26% disapprove. To find a President with disapproval numbers as high as Obama at the end of his first year... well, you can look, but you won't find him - the closest is Reagan and Obama's got him beat by 10.

Normally, you wouldn't think much of these numbers but Obama campaigned on the promise that he would bring the country closer together. Throughout the campaign, even in his inaugural speech, he promised to, "...end the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn-out dogmas that for far too long have strangled our politics." Countless commentators and admirers claimed he was the "post-partisan" candidate and his margin of victory among independents seemed to cement the claim. Indeed, most Obama voters with whom I spoke told me they were voting for him because they beleived he could bring the parties together far better than McCain/Palin. So the question remains - now that Obama has proven himself to be just as partisan (if not more so) than his predecessor, will those supporters who believed him to be the harbinger of "hope and change" continue to lend him their support? They clearly didn't earlier this year in New Jersey and Virginia, what they will do in the future no one knows. After all, we call them independents for a reason.